INSIGHTS & RESEARCH
THE GOTHAM GUIDE
Monthly Market Intelligence from NYC’s Premier Appraiser.
November 2023 Market Report
The Manhattan market showed signs of stability in October. Total inventory levels remained virtually unchanged over the month while there was an almost 40% increase in the number of contracts signed. The Manhattan market saw a modest up-tick in price negotiability and time on market dropped by almost a full month, from 105 to 79 days. These metrics all point to a subtle shift in the direction of equilibrium.
December 2023 Market Report
The Manhattan market moved from neutral to challenging territory as supply levels declined by 9.6% and demand dropped by 16.7% overall. The 662 contracts signed in November represents a dramatic decline from historic seasonal demand levels. Marketing time remained stable at roughly 2.5 months on average. Price negotiability also remained mostly stable during the last 30 days.
January 2024 Market Report
The Manhattan market remained in challenging territory in December but could be headed for a rebound in 2024. Total inventory levels declined by 17% while the number of contracts signed moved significantly closer to historic seasonal levels. Mortgage interest rates trended lower in December and could fall further in 2024 based on Fed guidance. Lower rates coupled with reduced supply levels should move the market towards seller’s favor and put upwards pressure on price levels for most properties.
February 2024 Market Report
The beginning of the year saw the Manhattan market take its largest steps forward since last winter/spring. The number of contracts signed increased over 11% from December, while the 30 day moving average of contracts was up almost 20% and the ratio of contracts signed to listings taken off market increased over 40%. At the same time, supply continued to decline at a minimal rate. With the Fed keeping rates stable, supply and demand forces should exert positive pressure on prices.
March 2024 Market Report
February saw the listing climate index jump 45% to the point where almost twice as many properties are going to contract vs. going off market. The number of contracts signed increased over 24% from January, while the 30 day moving average of contracts was up over 25%. At the same time, supply continued to decline at a nominal rate. With demand increasing at a greater rate than supply, signs point to a shi towards a seller’s market in the upcoming spring season.
April 2024 Market Report
Over 1000 contracts were signed in March, representing a 13% month to month increase. The 30 day moving average of contracts moved into ‘hot’ territory for the first time in 10 months, reflective strengthened demand. March saw a nominal increase in supply; the first increase in supply in 6 months. Overall days on market declined by roughly 30 days and negotiability remained stable. The increased demand relative to supply has yet to translate to any evidenced price level increase.
May 2024 Market Report
Demand remained at healthy level in April. A modest decrease of 4.2% yielded almost 1000 contracts being signed. The 30 day moving average of contracts dipped a bit and remained in ‘moderate’ territory. April saw a significant increase in supply (530 unit added to the market); the first large increase in supply since Sept. 2023. Overall days on market declined sharply, from just over 3 months on average to just under 2 months on average.
June 2024 Market Report
Demand remained stable in May with the total number of contracts increasing by 4.3% and the 30 day moving average of contracts staying in ‘moderate’ territory with a 2.3% increase. After spiking in February, the Listing Climate Index declined for the 3rd straight month. May saw supply remain mostly unchanged with a net change of less than 100 units added to the market. Overall days on market remained mostly unchanged. These metrics all point to market stability.
July 2024 Market Report
Demand dropped slightly in June with the total number of contracts decreasing by 5.5%. This decline is modest and not enough to shift the 30 day moving average of contracts out of ‘ moderate ‘ territory. The Listing Climate Index declined for the 4th straight month, while supply levels decreased in step with the downward shift in demand. Overall days on market increased slightly. These metrics point to a healthy market that is anticipating possible future interest rate reductions.
August 2024 Market Report
July saw market demand contract for the 2nd straight month, with the total number of contracts decreasing by 7.5%. This decline has shifted the 30 day moving average closer to indicating a cold market The Listing Climate Index declined for the 5th straight month, to the point that we are back in ‘Challenging’ territory for the first time since Dec. 2023. The decline in demand was met with a significant decrease in overall supply (the market saw a net decrease of almost 900 properties).
September 2024 Market Report
August saw the number of monthly contracts signed decrease for the 5th time in six months, pushing the 30 day moving average of contracts into ‘cold’ territory. The Listing Climate Index surged back to neutral territory, with fewer units going ‘off market’ than going to contract. Last month the reduction in supply far outpaced the decline in demand. Over the last 60 days over 3500 properties have been taken off the market vs. only 1700 new listings added.
October 2024 Market Report
Almost 600 properties were added to the Manhattan market supply in September, marking a dramatic reversal of the summer supply reduction trend. The number of monthly contracts signed decreased again (16.8%), for the 6th time in 7th months, keeping the 30 day moving average of contracts into ‘cold’ territory. The number of contracts signed relative to number of listings removed from the market also declined, moving The Listing Climate Index closer to challenging territory.
November 2024 Market Report
Just under 1,000 contracts were signed in September, marking a dramatic 45% increase from August. The 30 day moving average of contracts moved the closest to ‘hot’ territory that its been in over a year. The number of contracts signed relative to number of listings removed, reversed its downward trend and moved The Listing Climate Index higher. Simultaneously, supply levels dropped modestly as over 400 fewer new listings were added to the market vs. the 1900+ units added in August
December 2024 Market Report
The October market did not keep pace with torrid September, but remained positive overall. The 30 day moving average of contracts declined almost 15% but remained in ‘moderate’ territory. The number of contracts signed relative to number of listings removed, declined by almost 18% while The Listing Climate Index remained ‘neutral’. The 880 contracts signed in October exceeded the 834 new listings added. This dynamic is a key change and could put upwards pressure on pricing.
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